What Does the Main Monthly Jobs Report Tell Us?
September's Delayed Jobs Report Marks Fourth Consecutive Month of Small Declines. According to the monthly business survey shown below, the state lost 4,500 jobs in September and the August report was revised down from +4,000 to -10,300. With net job losses over the past four months, the September jobs report suggests the state's labor market has perhaps weakened slightly.
A Closer Look at This Summer's Household Survey Hints at a Labor Market Losing Momentum. The state's household survey of workers and their employment was more upbeat than the business survey for most of the year. Starting in June, however, the household survey has shown a net decline in statewide employment and a slight uptick in the number of unemployed workers. For the three-month period July, August, and September, the state's labor force grew by 21k, the number of employed workers fell by 15k, and the number of unemployed workers increased 36k. With this slowdown, the state's unemployment rate has climbed from 5.4 percent in June to 5.6 percent in September, representing more than 1.1m unemployed workers. Although we interpret this recent shift with caution because the monthly household survey is a relatively small survey subject to bumpy swings, the three month trend since June has been an unmistakable departure from the more promising incoming data seen earlier this year.